Graphic used to denote By the Numbers articles

What record credit card debt levels tell us—and don’t

Unemployment levels likely a better bellwether

BySteve Wyett
August 11, 20236 min read

Recent financial headlines have reported that credit card balances, for the first time, have crossed the $1 trillion mark. Economic data such as this can provide insight into the health of the consumer— and the broader economy, as consumer spending is nearly 70% of domestic GDP.

Our chart this week shows this fact, yet in many articles, the insinuation is this is a sign of consumer stress and a harbinger of an impending economic slowdown. Credit card debt has indeed been accelerating quickly after a period of declines driven by significant fiscal stimulus during the pandemic. We also know interest rates on credit cards have risen materially as the Fed has tightened monetary policy in response to higher inflation. Average credit card rates now exceed 20%, so this is not a low-cost source of credit. Meanwhile, other debts, like car loans and mortgages, have also increased, and most student loan repayment moratoriums are scheduled to end soon.

However, credit card debt is at new records as our overall economy, as measured by GDP, is at record levels too. It might be “better” if all of our growth occurred without additional debt, but more realistically, additional debt is part of the economic growth equation. So the absolute level of credit card debt might be a misleading data point on a standalone basis.

There have also been reports of increasing delinquencies on credit card accounts, meaning accounts where repayment is 30 days+ past due. Again, our chart shows this is true, while a longer-term view also reveals delinquencies are coming off very low levels and are still far below the levels we saw during the Financial Crisis in 2008-2009.

As with many statistics and data points, the headline might not reveal the whole story. We can agree the increase in the use of credit cards indicates a shift in how consumers maintain their current spending levels. We can also agree that using credit cards at today’s interest rates means higher debt service costs for borrowers. But the impact on future consumer spending and growth will be materially impacted by the labor market's health. As inflation falls, real wages are increasing, and consumers with jobs are more able to maintain spending. The more important variable will be if the economy slows and unemployment rises. Then deteriorating credit will be a result, but not the cause.

Disclosure

Download the full report

Get By the Numbers delivered to your inbox.

Subscribe (Opens in a new tab)

Related Content

    BOK Financial Corporation is a more than $50 billion regional financial services company headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma with more than $105 billion in assets under management and administration. The company's stock is publicly traded on NASDAQ under the Global Select market listings (BOKF). BOK Financial Corporation's holdings include BOKF, NA; BOK Financial Securities, Inc., and BOK Financial Private Wealth, Inc. BOKF, NA's holdings include TransFund and Cavanal Hill Investment Management, Inc. BOKF, NA operates banking divisions across eight states as: Bank of Albuquerque; Bank of Oklahoma; Bank of Texas and BOK Financial (in Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas and Missouri); as well as having limited purpose offices Nebraska, Wisconsin, Connecticut and Tennessee. The entities held by BOK Financial Corporation are periodically referred to collectively as BOK Financial Corporation Group. Through its subsidiaries, BOK Financial Corporation provides commercial and consumer banking, brokerage trading, investment, trust services, mortgage origination and servicing, and an electronic funds transfer network. For more information, visit www.bokf.com.

    Securities, insurance, and advisory services offered through BOK Financial Securities, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC and an SEC registered investment adviser. Services may be offered under our trade name, BOK Financial Advisors.

    Investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no assurance that the investment process will consistently lead to successful investing. Asset allocation and diversification do not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses. Risks applicable to any portfolio are those associated with its underlying securities.

    INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: NOT FDIC INSURED | NOT GUARANTEED BY THE BANK OR ITS AFFILIATES | NOT DEPOSITS | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | MAY LOSE VALUE.

    The content in this article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax or investment advice. Always consult with a qualified financial professional, accountant or lawyer for legal, tax and investment advice. Neither BOK Financial Corporation nor its affiliates offer legal advice.

    BOK Financial® is a trademark of BOKF, NA. Member FDIC. Equal Housing Lender . © 2025 BOKF, NA.